From climate risks to healthier decisions: What can we learn from the evidence?

Across Europe, climate change is becoming increasingly visible in our everyday lives. Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, wildfires are affecting communities and air quality, and changing weather patterns are placing new pressures on our environment and health.

These events remind us that climate change is not only an environmental challenge. It is also a health challenge.

But recognising a health risk is only the beginning. A more difficult question is: what can we do about it, and how much difference could those actions make?

This is where evidence becomes important.

From understanding risk to understanding what we can change

Researchers can use data and evidence to understand how environmental changes affect people’s health. But decision-makers also need to know what could happen if we reduce those risks.

For some environmental health risks, we simply do not have studies that allow us to measure the impact of an intervention directly. Instead, researchers can work with the evidence that already exists to understand the relationship between environmental exposure and health.

Dr Matt Lloyd Jones, a researcher at the University of Exeter, has explored this challenge using coastal water pollution as an example. His work shows how existing epidemiological evidence can help us estimate the potential health benefits of reducing an environmental risk.

The important point is that this is not a prediction of exactly what will happen. It helps us understand what might be possible.

Why this matters as our climate changes

This way of thinking is particularly relevant as climate change alters the environments in which we live.

For example, changes in temperature, rainfall and extreme weather can influence environmental conditions and people’s exposure to health risks. In coastal areas, changing conditions can also affect water quality and exposure to pathogens.

At the same time, the same environments can provide important benefits. Coastal areas support recreation, physical activity, mental wellbeing and livelihoods.

So when we think about adaptation, we need to look at the whole picture.

An action designed to reduce one health risk could have other consequences — positive or negative. Understanding these connections can help us ask better questions:

• What health risks could we reduce?
• Who could benefit?
• What other effects might we need to consider?

Bringing evidence into the decision

This is one of the roles of Health Impact Assessment (HIA).

HIA brings together different types of evidence to explore how policies, projects and interventions could affect people’s health. It can help connect environmental change with exposure, health outcomes and the wider factors that shape people’s wellbeing.

For BlueAdapt, this is particularly relevant. Understanding the health impacts of climate and environmental change requires us to bring together environmental evidence, epidemiology, modelling and the perspectives of people and communities.

The goal is not to predict the future with certainty. It is to use the best available evidence to understand possible futures, recognise uncertainty and support better-informed decisions about how we adapt.

From risk to action

As Europe continues to experience heatwaves, wildfires and other climate-related pressures, understanding health risks is becoming increasingly important.

But the next step is equally important: understanding what we can do about them.

Health Impact Assessment and modelling can help us move from “What could happen?” to “What could we do, and what difference might it make?”

That shift — from understanding risk to exploring possibilities for action — is an important part of building healthier and more climate-resilient communities.

Explore further

Learn more about Health Impact Assessment and how it can support evidence-informed decision-making:

Source: World Health Organization – Health Impact Assessment