Introduction

To respond quickly, we need to be able to identify in real-time where people might be exposed to contaminated water. This includes beaches, bathing water sites like rivers and lakes, and places where people work in, on, or under the water. We also need to pinpoint places where shellfish can become contaminated and enter the food chain.

Our teams will work closely with stakeholders to make sure our models meet their needs. The ultimate aim is to develop and test a series of models that can work together to predict the risk of human exposure to pathogens, allowing us to take timely action to reduce the risk.

The research

To make evidence-based predictions, we’re designing an advanced mathematical model to predict how and where waterborne pathogens spread in estuaries and along the coast.

To inform our model, we’re studying how viruses and bacteria evolve and spread in coastal waters, considering pollution source, temperature, rainfall and other variables that might be affected by climate change. We’re creating computer models that simulate the flow of pathogens in representative coastal areas of Ireland, Wales, England, Italy and the Netherlands.

The impact

It’s challenging to measure directly how pathogens are transported in coastal waters, because there are so many different scenarios caused by varying tides, climate, contamination levels and exposure situations. However, models provide a way to predict pathogen exposure risk with high accuracy in terms of location and time. These predictions help us create detailed risk maps, guiding future water quality testing programs and protecting people from exposure and possible health risks.